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06/10/2007 - Havre de Grace, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Na On Min was making just her sixth start on the LPGA Tour.
Sunday, she'll carry a lead into the final round at her first major.
Min, a rookie from South Korea, fired a seven-under 65 Saturday at Bulle Rock to take the third-round lead at the McDonald's LPGA Championship, the second women's major of the season.
She was at 10-under 206, one shot ahead of overnight leader Suzann Pettersen.
"Maybe tomorrow I'll be nervous. But I'll just do my best and not think about my position," Min, who has spoken English for less than two years, said in an on-course interview.
Pettersen made a 12-foot birdie putt at the 17th hole and shot a one-under 71 to join Min in the final group Sunday. She is at nine-under 207.
Karrie Webb, the 2001 champion, also had a 71 Saturday and was tied with Angela Park, another rookie, at eight-under 208. Park fired a 68 in the third round.
"I've never experienced anything like this before," the rookie said.
Morgan Pressel, the season's first major winner at the Kraft Nabisco Championship, shot a 70 and was alone in fifth place at seven-under 209.
Kim Saiki-Maloney (70) was a stroke further back at 210.
Behind her, Lorena Ochoa (69) led a group of six players who were knotted in seventh place at five-under 211. The world No. 1 is still looking for her first major championship.
"Hopefully I'm not too far back and I have a chance tomorrow," said Ochoa, who was five back.
Another young star wasn't so lucky.
Michelle Wie, bothered by a left wrist injury that forced her controversial withdraw from the Ginn Tribute last week, shot an 11-over 83 Saturday and was in last place out of 84 players who made the cut.
It was her worst round against the men or women since she shot an 85 in the first round of the LPGA Tour's CJ Nine Bridges Classic in November 2003, just weeks after her 14th birthday.
Wie, now 17, was at 14-over 230 and unsure if she would even play the final round Sunday.
"I really want to play," Wie said, her wrist wrapped in ice. "I think it would be awesome to get another experience, a round under my belt. Just have to see how it goes tonight."
Wie's highest round against the men was an 81 in the second round of last year's 84 Lumber Classic.
Annika Sorenstam, a vocal critic of Wie's withdrawal last week, and her subsequent practice rounds over the weekend at Bulle Rock, shot a one-over 73 and was tied for 13th place at four-under 212.
Sorenstam was one of 16 players within six shots of Min, whose 65 Saturday was the best round by three shots.
Min recovered from an early bogey at No. 2 with eight birdies over the next 14 holes. Her two-putt birdie from the fringe at the par-five 15th moved her into a first-place tie with Birdie Kim.
Pettersen moved one shot ahead of both players when she knocked her second shot at the par-five 11th within 10 feet and made the eagle putt to reach 10- under.
But Min tied her with a 10-foot birdie putt ahead at the 16th, and Pettersen fell two back when she made a sloppy double-bogey at the 13th after missing the fairway and taking a penalty.
That opened the door for Min's surprising overnight lead.
"This is my first major, so I'm nervous," said Min, who hit every green in regulation Saturday until the last two holes. "I will just try to keep my tunnel vision and play steady (on Sunday)."
Pettersen redeemed herself by making the 12-foot birdie try on 17, where her preparations included getting down on her stomach to read the putt.
The often intense Pettersen missed a chance to win her first major when she coughed up four shots in a three-hole stretch at the end of this year's Kraft Nabisco Championship, handing Pressel the victory.
Pettersen finally broke through for her first LPGA win at the Michelob ULTRA Open in May. Sunday, as she makes another run at her first major, she'll be paired in the final twosome with a player she's not sure she has even heard of.
"I'll probably know her when I see her on the first tee," Pettersen said.
Defending champion Se Ri Pak had a 74 Saturday and was 11 shots back at one- over 217.
<< Navarro returns to Devil Rays
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Navarro was taken to Broward Genera
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Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kaz Matsui slapped the go-ahead RBI double
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Colorado starter Rodrigo
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
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