Phils start four-game set at home against Rockies

Baseball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies seemed confident with Roy Halladay on the mound earlier this season. Lately they've been fortunate to get a win when the former American League Cy Young Award honoree starts.

Halladay will get the nod again Friday in the opener of a four-game series versus the visiting Colorado Rockies at Citizens Bank Park and is just 2-5 with a 2.95 earned run average in his last eight starts. The Phillies are 3-5 in that stretch and Halladay is coming off Sunday's 11-6 loss against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

The right-hander surrendered six runs -- five earned -- and seven hits in six innings after lasting at least nine innings in each of his previous two outings. Halladay fell to 10-8 in 20 starts and raised his ERA from 2.19 to 2.40 following his Windy City appearance. He will pitch against Colorado for the second time this season and did not figure into the decision of a 4-3 loss to the Rockies on May 12 at Coors Field.

Halladay allowed three runs, two of which were earned, and 10 hits in 6 1/3 innings. He is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA in two career starts against the Rockies.

The Phillies have been brutal lately and were able to salvage the finale of a four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals with Thursday's 2-0 win in 11 innings at Busch Stadium. Placido Polanco homered to lead off the 11th inning and Jayson Werth later added an RBI double for a 2-0 score. Brad Lidge then posted his eighth save in the bottom half and Chad Durbin posted the win by getting the last two outs in the 10th inning.

Cole Hamels started for the Phillies and allowed just one hit over eight innings with seven strikeouts for the no-decision.

"We were getting single after single and to finally get a round-tripper, that's huge for us," Hamels said of Polanco's homer in the 11th. "Hopefully we can take this sort of game and momentum into tomorrow."

Philadelphia, which ended a four-game slide and is seven games behind the Atlanta Braves for the National League East lead, improved to 2-6 in eight games since the All-Star break and made a coaching move yesterday by relieving hitting coach Milt Thompson of his duties. Thompson had been the team's hitting coach since 2005 and will be replaced by another former Phillie in Greg Gross. Gross had been a coach with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs for the past three seasons.

The Phillies finished second in the Senior Circuit in scoring in 2005, first in 2006 and 2007, second in 2008 and first again in 2009. They are 12th in the NL this season in batting (.254) and on-base percentage (.322).

Colorado will begin the final stretch of its 11-game road trip and lost three of four games in south Florida. In Thursday afternoon's 3-2 loss from Sun Life Stadium, Ronny Paulino singled home the game-winning run off of Rockies reliever and losing pitcher Jhoulys Chacin.

Jorge De La Rosa held the Marlins to a pair of run and three hits over six innings in his third start since coming back from a left middle finger injury.

"I never lost my confidence," De La Rosa said on the team's site. "I'm going to try to be the same pitcher I was last year, and like I pitched today."

Ian Stewart homered and Jason Giambi finished 2-for-4 with an RBI for the Rockies who have lost six of eight games and are 2-5 on its road trip. Colorado is also 4 1/2 games behind San Diego for the NL West lead.

Taking the mound for the Rox tonight will be Aaron Cook, who is 2-0 in his last three starts and is coming off a solid performance in Sunday's 1-0 win at Cincinnati. Cook tossed seven shutout innings and struck out five batters to improve to 4-5 in 18 starts to go along with a 4.56 ERA.

Cook is just 1-5 in 10 road start this season and will take on the Phils for a second time in 2010. The righty allowed three runs in six innings of a 4-3 win at Coors Field back on May 12 and did not factor in the outcome. In 10 career games (9 starts) against Philadelphia, Cook is just 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA.

Colorado and Philadelphia split that weather-beaten series at 1-1 back in May, while the Phillies have won 11 of the last 14 matchups between the two clubs.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.