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09/09/2007 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Greg Maddux pitched six innings of one-run ball as the San Diego Padres beat the Colorado Rockies, 3-1, in the second of a three-game set at Coors Field.
Maddux (12-9) gave up just three hits with three strikeouts and has now gone 54 1/3 innings without a walk. He has faced 212 batters since his last free pass, which occurred in the second inning against the Astros on July 28.
Khalil Greene went 2-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored and Kevin Kouzmanoff drove in a run for the Padres, who snapped a three-game losing streak.
San Diego now sits 1 1/2 games behind Arizona, which is currently playing St. Louis, for first place in the NL West. Also, San Diego holds a 2 1/2 games lead over the Dodgers for the wild card spot.
Garrett Atkins went 2-for-3 with an RBI while Jeff Francis (15-7) was the hard-luck loser as he gave up just two runs on four hits in eight innings of work for the Rockies, who had won four of five coming into the game.
Colorado dropped to 3 1/2 games out of the wild card lead.
The Padres took a 2-0 lead in the second. Adrian Gonzalez led off with a walk and Greene followed with a ground-rule double. Kouzmanoff then singled to bring home Gonzalez and Josh Bard hit into a double play to score Greene.
Colorado got a run back in the bottom of the inning as Todd Helton led off with a double and Atkins chased him home with a single to right to make it a 2-1 game.
However, the Rockies offense grounded to a halt after the second. Maddux allowed just one more hit, an infield single to Atkins in the fourth and then retired the final seven batters before hitting the bench.
Doug Brocail got the first two outs of the seventh before giving up a walk to Brad Hawpe. Heath Bell then took the mound and got Troy Tulowitzki to ground out to end the inning.
Colorado did threaten in the eighth as the team had runners at first and third with two outs, but Matt Holliday struck out to end the inning.
Greene gave the Padres some insurance in the ninth as he singled home Mike Cameron to give his team a 3-1 lead.
Trevor Hoffman retired the Rockies in order in the ninth to pick up his 37th save of the season. In the inning, he struck out Helton to start the frame, which was strikeout No. 1,000 on his career.
Game Notes
Maddux's longest streak of innings without a walk was when he set an NL record in 2001 as he went 72 1/3 innings without issuing a free pass...Gonzalez has an 11-game hitting streak...Attendance was 30,429.
<< Zambrano, Soriano lead Cubs past Pirates
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Zambrano tossed a two-hitter over
six-plus solid innings, and the Chicago Cubs pounded the Pittsburgh Pirates,
5-1, in the middle portion of a three-game series at PNC Park.
Zambrano, who had l
<< Weeks lifts Brewers over Reds
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rickie Weeks' triple in the ninth scored
the go-ahead run and the Milwaukee Brewers edged the Cincinnati Reds, 4-3, in
the middle portion of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park.
Craig Couns
<< Young and Upton homer in ninth as Rays top Jays
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Delmon Young and pinch-hitter B.J. Upton
both lofted two-run homers off Blue Jays closer Jeremy Accardo in the ninth
inning to give the Tampa Bay Devil Rays a 5-4 victory over Toronto at
Tropica
<< Polanco helps Tigers overcome Mariners
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Placido Polanco went 3-for-4 with two runs
scored and four RBI to lead the Detroit Tigers past the Seattle Mariners,
12-6, at Comerica Park.
Brandon Inge belted a two-run homer for the Tigers, who hav
Moore powers O's past Red Sox >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scott Moore's grand slam powered a seven-run
third inning, as the Baltimore Orioles routed the Boston Red Sox, 11-5, in the
third of a four-game set.
Baltimore finally ended its 11-game losing streak at home,
Crew's playoff chances singed by Fire >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew's 2007 Major League Soccer
playoff hopes suffered a damaging blow with a 1-0 loss to the Chicago Fire in
the pouring rain on Saturday at home.
Not only do the Fire (8-10-5) pass the Crew
UCLA holds off BYU >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Blake jumped on a key fourth-quarter
fumble by Max Hall, and 13th-ranked UCLA held off a pesky BYU squad, 27-17, at
the Rose Bowl.
Bruins quarterback Ben Olson had a shaky outing, completing jus
D'Backs Hudson to undergo thumb surgery >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arizona Diamondbacks slick-fielding second
baseman Orlando Hudson will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn
ligament in his left thumb.
Hudson suffered the injury sliding head first into
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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