Federer gains seventh straight U.S. Open semifinal

Tennis Betting Lines

09/09/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer advanced to his seventh straight U.S. Open semifinal by avenging a loss earlier this year to Swede Robin Soderling with a three-set triumph Wednesday night.

The second-seeded Federer, attempting to win the tournament for the sixth time, earned a 6-4, 6-4, 7-5 victory over the fifth-seeded Soderling in windy conditions in the final match of the night at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Next up for the super Swiss will be third seed Novak Djokovic, who took out 17th-seeded Frenchman Gael Monfils, 7-6 (7-2), 6-1, 6-2, in the day session.

Federer, who owns a men's record 16 major titles, including this year's Aussie Open crown, fired 18 aces to just two for his opponent. Federer won points on 50 of his 58 first serves and had 36 winners.

"If I can't serve in the wind I've got a problem here," Federer said. "You could wake me up at two in the morning or 4 in the morning, I can hit serves. It's what we do and I'm so happy it worked so well tonight."

Soderling, the reigning two-time French Open runner-up who snapped Federer's streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinal appearances by winning in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros earlier this year, had just 16 winners and couldn't solve the gusty conditions or his opponent's serve.

Federer, who lost to Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in last year's final here and was the U.S. Open champ from 2004-08, has not dropped a set yet at this fortnight. He moved to 13-1 all-time against Soderling, also beating him in last year's U.S. Open quarters and last year's French Open finale. This was their fifth straight meeting in a Grand Slam tourney.

A great drop shot gave Federer a break of serve in the first set for a 4-3 lead. Soderling was 0-for-4 on break point chances in the set and Federer held at love his final two service games.

In the second set, Federer was actually broken in the fourth game to square the set at 2-2. But he broke back on a passing shot and later used an ace down the middle to finish off the set.

A wide forehand from Federer gave Soderling a break in the third for a 5-3 lead, but Federer won the final four games, thanks in part to mistakes from the Swede. Soderling barked at himself after failing to come up with a return at the net as the set was soon evened at 5-5.

Soderling then fought off one break point, but a backhand wide gave Federer the big advantage for a 6-5 lead, putting the match on his racquet. He held at love in the final game, fittingly ending the encounter with an ace.

Earlier in the day, a tough first set went to Djokovic when Monfils played a rather poor tiebreak, and the second set was a throw-away one for the Frenchman, as the Serb simply dominated the stanza.

In the third set, Monfils had a chance to break Djokovic to pull within 3-4 and then serve to tie things up, but the Serb managed a key hold to go up 5-2 and then broke his French counterpart to reach the semis.

Djokovic moved on in 2 hours, 28 minutes, as he broke Monfils no less than seven times en route to victory. The Serb tallied 13 more unforced errors (50-37) on Day 10 of the fortnight, but he also connected for 21 more winners (38-17).

The 23-year-old Djokovic is now a perfect 5-0 lifetime against Monfils, including a first-round win here in New York back in 2005.

The former world No. 2 Djokovic will perform in his fourth U.S. Open and ninth career Grand Slam semifinal (2-6). The steady Serbian star was the 2007 U.S. Open runner-up to the great Federer and captured the Aussie Open championship in 2008.

Federer is 10-5 all-time against Djokovic, including a straight-set semifinal victory at the U.S. Open a year ago. In fact, Federer has eliminated the Serbian in Flushing Meadows each of the last three years.

Two more quarterfinals will be staged here on Thursday, when top-ranked Rafael Nadal meets eighth-seeded fellow Spanish lefthander Fernando Verdasco and 12th-seeded Russian Mikhail Youzhny takes on 25th-seeded Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka. Nadal is the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champ and owns eight major titles overall, but he still needs a U.S. Open one to complete a rare men's career Grand Slam. Youzhny reached the final four here back in 2006.

Nadal is a laughable 10-0 lifetime against Verdasco, including 2-0 in Grand Slam events.

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NFL Football Betting


BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES

It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.

BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES

All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.

COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES

Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.

TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES

Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.

RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.

PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.

JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.

SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.

VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES

Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.

DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES

Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.

SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES

I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.

BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES

Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.

BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES

Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.

RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES

A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.

PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers

Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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