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07/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Suburban Cincinnati native Aaron Cook returns home to face a team that's never beaten him today, when the Colorado Rockies head to Great American Ball Park to meet the Reds in the finale of a three-game series.
The hosts have won the initial two games, including Saturday, when Edinson Volquez made a triumphant return to the mound and was backed by four home runs in an 8-1 Reds win.
Volquez (1-0), who last appeared in a major league game on June 1, 2009, struck out nine over six innings, walked two and yielded just three hits.
Two of those came in the first inning when Dexter Fowler doubled and Carlos Gonzalez brought in the only Colorado run with a single.
The 27-year-old Volquez had been out after ligament replacement surgery in his right elbow. It was his first win since May 5, 2009 against the Marlins.
Drew Stubbs smacked two homers and drove in three runs, while Brandon Phillips cracked a three-run shot. Jonny Gomes had two RBI and added a solo home run as Cincinnati won its second straight in this three-game set.
Jorge De La Rosa (3-2) was rocked for a second straight outing coming off a finger injury that shelved him for more than two months.
In 3 1/3 innings, he gave up seven runs - six earned - on four hits and five walks as the Rockies fell for a third consecutive game.
Cook, who was born 31 years ago in nearby Fort Campbell, Ky., is 2-0 with a 5.12 earned run average in eight lifetime meetings with the Reds, including eight starts.
He was drafted by the Rockies out of high school in 1997 - second round - and debuted in the majors five years later with nine appearances at the end of the 2002 season.
He won a career-best 16 games in 2008 and returned to win 11 more a season later, but has struggled through 17 starts this season with just three wins and an ERA that's hovered around 5.00.
Cook was a 7-3 winner over San Francisco in a July 1 game, then was tagged for 10 hits and five runs in a no-decision against Louis on July 7 - a game Colorado won, 8-7.
The Rockies are 8-9 in his 17 starts, though the 6-foot-3, 215-pounder is winless - 0-5, 6.70 ERA - in nine road starts.
Cincinnati counters with lefty Travis Wood, a former second-round draft pick in 2005. He seeks his first big-league win in his fourth start.
The 23-year-old was on the verge of a gem in his most recent outing, carrying a perfect game into the ninth inning against Philadelphia before the Reds eventually lost, 1-0, in extra innings as part of a four-game sweep.
Wood struck out eight Phillies and lowered his opponents' batting average to .127 in his three starts.
Previously, he'd allowed eight hits and five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets - games both won by the Reds.
This will be Wood's first appearance in Cincinnati.
<< Phillies try to even series with Cubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies needed some late heroics to stop
the Chicago Cubs yesterday afternoon and hope that the momentum will carry
over into this evening's finale of a four-game series from Wrigley Field.
The Phil
<< Braves, Brewers conclude set at Turner Field
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are shooting for a split of a four-game
series with the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday afternoon, when the two ballclubs
wrap up a lengthy set from Turner Field.
The Braves have dropped two in a row and t
<< Tadini rallies for Challenge Tour win
Hildisrieden, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alessandro Tadini fired a seven-
under 65 Sunday to come from behind and win the Credit Suisse Challenge on the
European Challenge Tour.
Tadini finished at 22-under-par 266 for his third Challeng
<< Cardinals have brooms ready for Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals aim for their fifth straight win
and a four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers when the two storied
franchises close out their series today at Busch Stadium.
St. Louis' last four-gam
Szavay wins second straight title >>
Prague, Czech Republic (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hungary's Agnes Szavay captured her
second consecutive tournament title with a three-set victory over crowd
favorite Barbora Zahlavova Strycova of the Czech Republic in Sunday's final of
the Pra
Padres go for another sweep of Arizona >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National League West-leading San Diego Padres will
shoot for the second straight three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks
when the two division foes close out their set today at Petco Park.
San Diego has
Mets send Santana to salvage series with San Francisco >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets ace Johan Santana has allowed only one run
through his last three starts and hopes to continue that stingy trend today in
the finale of a four-game set against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park.
Sa
Angels vie to continue mastery of Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim set their sights on a
ninth straight victory over the Seattle Mariners as the two ballclubs wrap up
a four-game set today at Angel Stadium.
On Saturday, Juan Rivera went 3-for-4 an
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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