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06/25/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Don Baylor and Cookie Rojas have been named managers for the Futures Game, which will be a part of the All-Star Game festivities in Anaheim.
The contest will take place on Sunday, July 11 at Angel Stadium, where Baylor will manage the U.S. squad and Rojas will be at the helm of the World team.
Baylor spent six years as a player in Anaheim and was named the 1979 American League Most Valuable Player with the Angels. He played for 19 years in the big leagues and is one of only 18 players to collect at least 250 home runs and steal at least 250 bases.
He was the first manager in Colorado history and guided the Rockies to the National League playoffs as a wild card in 1995 in their third year of existence. During his six seasons as the skipper in Denver, he posted a record of 440-469.
Baylor returned to the dugout in 2000 to begin a two and a half-year run as the Cubs manager during which he led them to a 187-220 mark before being relieved of his duties after 83 games in the 2002 season.
Rojas played in the major leagues for 16 seasons and is currently a Spanish language broadcaster for the Florida Marlins.
He worked in the front office and served as a scout for the Angels before getting the chance to manage the team in 1988, when he posted a 75-79 record before being replaced for the final eight games of the season. He also stepped in as an interim manager for the Florida Marlins during the 1996 campaign, winning once and losing once.
The World team has won the last three games and leads the all-time series, 6-5.
Both managers will be joined by a six-man coaching staff comprised of Minor League coaches and managers.
<< Eagles looking into shooting outside Vick's birthday party
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles released a
statement Friday regarding a reported shooting incident that occurred outside
a Virginia Beach restaurant celebrating Michael Vick's 30th birthday.
The Virginia
<< Bruins give Recchi one more year
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins brought back 42-year-old
forward Mark Recchi on a one-year deal Friday.
The Boston Herald reported the deal is for $1 million with possible
incentives.
Recchi posted 18 goal
<< Montoya wins second straight New Hampshire pole
Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Pablo Montoya edged Kasey Kahne in Friday's
qualifying for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 to claim his second consecutive
pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Montoya, who won the pole last September a
<< Columbus signs Carroll to four-year extension
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew signed midfielder Brian
Carroll to a four-year contract extension on Friday.
Carroll has been a stalwart in the Crew's midfield since joining the club,
starting and appearing in 73
Rose cruising at Travelers >>
Cromwell, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Rose fired an eight-under 62 on Friday
to take a commanding lead after the second round of the Travelers
Championship.
The Englishman established a new 36-hole record with his 14-under 1
LeBron's manager: No tour >>
LeBron James is not going on a free-agent tour.The NBA superstar's business manager told ESPN.com on Friday that James has no plans to go on a recruiting trip when free agency opens on July 1. There had been speculation that the two-time MVP would h
Galaxy aim to end TFC's unbeaten home streak >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Galaxy travel to take on
Toronto FC at BMO Field on Saturday as Major League Soccer ends its two-week
FIFA World Cup break this weekend.
The Galaxy (10-1-2) have a comfortable lead
Giants safety Chad Jones has surgery following car accident >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants rookie safety Chad
Jones underwent surgery Friday for injuries sustained in a reported early-
morning one-car accident in New Orleans.
According to the team's website, Jones s
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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