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07/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We are just past the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season and the Detroit Tigers are right where they want to be; atop the American League Central standings.
The Tigers have gotten off to a hot start in July, having won five of six this month following their three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles this week. Most importantly, they've been getting contributions from top to bottom.
Wednesday night against Baltimore, Tigers' starter Max Scherzer pitched seven innings of one-run ball, scattering six hits while striking out six. It was his fourth consecutive victory, marking a career-high. Indeed, Scherzer has enjoyed a sweet redemption in the Motor City. Back in mid-May, Scherzer was demoted to Triple-A Toledo with a 1-4 record and a 7.29 ERA.
He had even dubbed himself a "Five and Dive guy" for his frequent high pitch counts and subsequent inability to get past the fifth inning. But that is no more as Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA since his return, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings.
Another guy who has been a major sparkplug to the team's recent surge is veteran Johnny Damon, who is hitting .304 in July and reached a milestone with his 2,500th career hit in the third inning of Wednesday's game. However, it was career hit No. 2,501 which will have a more lasting memory. Damon propelled the Tigers to a 7-5 win over the Orioles with a walk-off homer in the 11th inning.
"The 2,500 ball is going to go in my trophy case," he said after the game. "But 2,501 is definitely going to be the one I remember that helped this team win a crucial ballgame."
An even bigger catalyst has been Miguel Cabrera, who has his sights set on a Triple Crown. Entering Wednesday's game, Cabrera was leading the majors in batting average (.347), homers (21) and RBI (73). But later that night, Toronto's Jose Bautista surpassed him with his 22nd homer of the year, albeit an inside-the-parker. Cabrera has also hit safely in 16 straight games, which is one shy of his career high, set last season.
Next up for the Tigers is a weekend home series with the Minnesota Twins leading into the All-Star break. Minnesota was recently leapfrogged in the division standings by the Chicago White Sox, winners of five straight.
The Tigers have been able to take care of struggling teams. Wednesday's sweep of the Orioles wrapped up Detroit's streak of six straight home series against last-place teams. The Tigers compiled a 15-3 mark during that stretch.
ROYALS CLOSING FIRST HALF WITH A BANG
The Kansas City Royals (39-46) are sending a message that they intend to hang around in the AL Central race. They've won three straight and five of six so far in the month of July. Overall, they've won 10 of their last 13.
The only problem is, they haven't been able to gain any ground. The first- place Tigers (46-37) have won three straight and seven of 10, while the second-place White Sox (46-38) have won five in a row. As a result, the Royals' deficit in the division standings is still eight games, but they'll have a chance to close some ground this weekend as they head to Chicago for a three-game set with their division rival.
Usually by this time, most sports fans in Kansas City have shifted their attention away from the Royals and toward the start of Chiefs training camp. Earlier this week, the Royals swept the Mariners in Seattle for the first time in 15 years. But how does this hot streak affect the team's eye toward the future? Will manager Ned Yost continue to play veterans at the expense of younger guys who need the at-bats?
"Realistically, if you can get it down to somewhere between four and six games with two months to play, you've got a chance," general manager Dayton Moore told the Kansas City Star.
The real question is, if the Royals manage to achieve that type of deficit by the end of the month, will Moore suddenly become a buyer at the trade deadline and part with some coveted prospects for help now?
WHITE SOX SUFFER MAJOR BLOW
When White Sox starter Jake Peavy abruptly walked off the mound after feeling a strange sensation in the back of his pitching shoulder during the second inning of Tuesday night's game with the Angels, fans throughout Chicago's South Side collectively held their breath.
As it turns out, the injury suffered by Peavy appears to be quite serious, and likely, season ending. That will ultimately hinge on a second and third opinion for what has been diagnosed as a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. Obviously, that's a major blow for a team has won five in a row to move to within a half-game of first place in the AL Central.
Over his last six starts, Peavy had compiled a 1.67 ERA and was pitching like the ace he was brought to Chicago to be. Most surprisingly, he was dominating on the mound despite some arm budding arm problems. After complaining of a dead arm a few weeks ago, Peavy underwent an MRI, which revealed fluid build- up in his pitching elbow. Although his next start was pushed back a couple of days, Peavy did not go on the DL, a decision that was reached after extensive internal discussions. In his previous start leading up to Tuesday, he felt something grab in the back of his shoulder, which yielded some bruising in the area. Still, after receiving some treatment, Peavy pitched on.
"I don't think anyone is at fault here -- myself for wanting to be out there or the team for letting me be out there," Peavy said.
No word from general manager Kenny Williams on how the injury will alter his trade deadline plans. For now, Daniel Hudson figures to be called up from Triple-A Charlotte to replace Peavy in the rotation, although nothing has been decided. Hudson was pulled out of the Futures Game on Sunday, leading to speculation that he'd be the man to fill Peavy's shoes, for now.
TWINS TRYING TO STOP THE BLEEDING
Less than a week ago, the Minnesota Twins were a fist-place team in the American League Central. But as we've learned over the years, things can change very quickly in this division. Entering this weekend's final series before the All-Star break, the Twins (45-40) find themselves in third place, two games back of Detroit.
However, by the end of the weekend, it's possible they could be right back in the driver's seat. The Twins head to the Motor City to kick off a three-game set with the division-leading Tigers Friday. And Minnesota is hell-bent on heading into the break the same way they've spent much of the season's first half; atop the division.
The series opener presents a marquee pitching matchup between Minnesota's Francisco Liriano and Detroit's Justin Verlander. In his last outing, Liriano went seven innings and allowed one run on four hits, fanning 10 against the Rays last Saturday. He'll need to bring his A-game Friday for a Minnesota squad that is a bit banged up at the moment.
First baseman Justin Morneau was held out of Thursday's lineup after taking a knee to the head on Wednesday night. Also on Wednesday night, left fielder Delmon Young sprained his left wrist during an outfield collision with Denard Span, though Young was back in the lineup Thursday.
CARMONA ENJOYING REBOUND SEASON FOR TRIBE
When he burst onto the scene with a 19-8 record and a 3.06 ERA as a 24-year- old in 2007, Indians starter Fausto Carmona was dubbed the next big thing in Cleveland. But injuries derailed his 2008 season, and last year he pitched so poorly he was demoted to the rookie-level Arizona League to try and regain his form.
Consider the first half of this season as evidence that Carmona has, in fact, rediscovered his mojo. Through 17 starts this year, he has compiled a 3.69 ERA and has tossed two complete games. Next week in Anaheim, he will be Cleveland's lone representative in the 2010 All-Star game, which will be his first as a pro.
Carmona was a manager's selection by New York Yankees coach Joe Girardi, who will manage the American League All-Stars. However, Carmona was mild-mannered about the news, which was delivered on a day when he lost to the A's, 3-1 despite another quality start.
"He's 7-7 now," pitching coach Tim Belcher said. "That doesn't sound all that impressive. But after (Sunday), that's now four losses with a quality start, and he's had three no-decisions with quality starts. He could very easily have as many as 13 wins and, quite conservatively, could have 10 or 11."
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The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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